Nigeria’s Economic Growth Rises to 4.07% in Fourth Quarter as Oil, Non-Oil Sectors Improve

Abuja, Nigeria — Nigeria’s economy recorded a modest improvement in the final quarter of 2025, expanding by 4.07 per cent year-on-year, according to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

The figure represents a slight increase from the 3.98 per cent growth recorded in the third quarter, signalling gradual momentum in Africa’s largest economy despite persistent inflationary pressures and fiscal challenges.

Economic analysts attribute the improvement to gains in both the oil and non-oil sectors, which continue to drive output across key areas of the economy.

Non-Oil Sector Remains the Main Driver

Data from the statistics office showed that the non-oil sector remained the dominant contributor, accounting for more than 97 per cent of Nigeria’s total gross domestic product during the quarter.

The sector’s performance was supported by activities in agriculture, services, telecommunications and trade, which together sustain the bulk of the country’s economic output.

Although the oil industry remains central to government revenue and foreign exchange earnings, its contribution to overall GDP continues to be relatively modest compared with the broader non-oil economy.

Oil Production Supports Output

Growth in the oil sector also contributed to the improved economic performance in the quarter, reflecting increased crude production and improved operational stability in the energy sector.

Higher output from Nigeria’s oil industry helped strengthen the country’s export earnings and supported overall GDP expansion.

Growth Below Government Targets

Despite the modest improvement, the latest figures remain below the more ambitious economic growth targets set by the federal government as it pursues fiscal reforms and investment-driven expansion.

The administration has implemented several policy measures aimed at stabilising the economy, including foreign-exchange reforms, subsidy removal and tax adjustments designed to improve public finances and attract investment.

Economic Outlook

Economists say Nigeria’s growth trajectory is expected to remain moderate in the near term as policymakers attempt to balance economic reforms with efforts to curb inflation and improve living standards.

While structural reforms have helped stabilise key macroeconomic indicators, analysts note that sustained growth will depend on stronger productivity in agriculture, manufacturing and services, as well as improved infrastructure and security conditions.